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Demystifying Express Entry Draws: When to Hold It

express entry draws

Pre-pandemic predictability of Express Entry draws has vanished, leaving hopeful candidates wondering – when will the next ITA wave hit? While regularity has given way to a complex ballet influenced by diverse factors, understanding these forces can shed light on future draw patterns.

Gone are the days of clockwork fortnightly draws: Back then, 3,000+ ITAs, with CRS cut-offs hovering around 470, materialized like clockwork every two Wednesdays. Policy objectives were consistent, processing targets on track, and Express Entry hummed along steadily.

Post-pandemic, inconsistency reigns: Now, draw frequency ebbs and flows. June saw rapid-fire two-weekly draws, then category-based selection ushered in a period of even greater activity, with 12 draws squeezed into just eight weeks. However, a month-long pause followed, and silence lingers since October 26th.

Unveiling the curtain behind the draw schedule:

Immigration Levels Plan: Each year, this blueprint sets Canada’s permanent resident intake targets for the next three years. For 2024, Express Entry shoulders the responsibility of welcoming 110,770 newcomers.

The processing queue dance: IRCC constantly monitors this dance floor. If enough applications pirouette toward completion, ensuring target figures are met, new ITAs may waltz in slowly. But a sparse queue prompts IRCC to crank up the draw tempo. Remember, processing takes six months, so late-2023 ITAs become 2024 landings.

Policy pirouettes: IRCC’s policy objectives also influence the choreography. Strengthening the economy requires inviting skilled newcomers who can hit the ground running. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates take center stage in this act, occasionally causing pauses as IRCC weighs various draw options.

CRS and Express Entry profile shuffles: Tweaks to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) or profile elements can also impact the rhythm. For instance, in 2020, increased CRS points for French proficiency necessitated technical updates, leading to temporary draw stoppages.

IT glitches interrupt the flow: Technical hiccups, like the recent Express Entry profile builder glitch, can force IRCC to press pause. Similarly, the rollout of new systems, like the TEER system replacing NOC Skill Types, may introduce bugs necessitating draw delays.

Staffing changes prompt reshuffles: New Immigration Ministers, Deputy Ministers, or other key personnel require time to adjust, potentially impacting draw schedules. Recent departmental reorganizations at IRCC further contribute to this shift in staffing and, consequently, the draw rhythm.

Navigating the unpredictable: While pinpointing the exact timing of the next draw remains elusive, understanding these diverse factors empowers you to interpret IRCC’s moves and anticipate future trends. Stay informed, monitor IRCC announcements, and remember, adaptability is key in the ever-evolving world of Express Entry.

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