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ANALYSIS: How Canada’s 2025 Immigration Levels Plan Impacts Express Entry Candidates’ Success

Immigration Levels Plan

Canada’s newly released Immigration Levels Plan brings noteworthy implications for foreign nationals seeking permanent residency through the Express Entry system. According to the plan, there will be an increase in permanent residency spots allocated to Express Entry candidates in 2025.

The primary beneficiaries of these changes will be:

  • Candidates currently residing in Canada
  • Candidates eligible for category-based draws

Those outside these key categories may find it more challenging to receive an Invitation to Apply (ITA) through Express Entry in 2025.

Increase in Express Entry Allocation

While the federal government is reducing overall permanent resident admissions by about 20% for 2025, there is a planned increase in allocations specifically for Express Entry:

Plan Year2025 Target (Current Plan)2025 Target (Previous Plan)2024 Target (Previous Plan)
Express Entry Target124,680117,500110,770

The combined 2025 target of 124,680 for “In-Canada Focus” and “Economic Priorities” categories represents an increase over both the 2024 target and last year’s 2025 target for the federal high-skilled (FHS) category, which includes the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP). Consequently, Express Entry candidates can anticipate a greater number of ITAs in 2025 than in 2024.

Increased Focus on In-Canada Candidates

This year’s Immigration Levels Plan introduces an “In-Canada Focus” category as part of its allocation for economic immigration through Express Entry-managed programs. This category will benefit candidates who are already living in Canada, boosting their likelihood of receiving an ITA in 2025.

For 2025, the IRCC set a target of 82,980 for this category, representing approximately 42% of the federal economic immigration target of 197,650.* However, candidates outside Canada, such as those in the FSWP or FSTP streams, may see their chances reduced.

  • Note: This calculation subtracts the 34,500 admissions allocated for Quebec Skilled Workers and Business from the total economic immigration target of 232,150, as Quebec has its own targets.

Emphasis on Category-Based Draws

The 2025 Plan also sets a target of 41,700 permanent resident admissions for the “Federal Economic Priorities” category, part of Express Entry. It is expected that IRCC will continue using category-based draws to meet this target, as it has since their introduction in May 2023.

Category-based draws allow the IRCC to issue ITAs to candidates with occupations aligned with Canada’s labor market needs. The current categories include:

  • French-language proficiency
  • Healthcare occupations
  • Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) occupations
  • Trade occupations
  • Transport occupations
  • Agriculture and agri-food occupations

For 2025, the federal government specifically highlighted the following categories as priorities:

  • Healthcare occupations
  • Trade occupations
  • French-language proficiency

Express Entry candidates eligible for these categories are more likely to receive ITAs in 2025. To qualify for an in-demand occupation-based draw, candidates typically need at least six months of work experience (or the equivalent in part-time) within the past three years in a relevant occupation.

History of the In-Canada Focus

On March 21, 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced IRCC’s plan to prioritize “domestic draws” to facilitate the transition of temporary residents within Canada to permanent status. Between May and October 2024, the IRCC issued 25,700 ITAs across eight CEC draws. Notably, no general draws have been held since April 23, 2024. The IRCC also aims to reduce the share of temporary residents as a percentage of Canada’s population from the current level of about 7% to 5% by 2026.

Overview of Category-Based Draws

Throughout 2024, numerous category-based draws were conducted:

CategoryNumber of DrawsNumber of ITAs
Agriculture and agri-food1150
French language proficiency921,400
Healthcare27,250
STEM14,500
Trade23,600
Transport1975

The 2025 plan affirms IRCC’s commitment to category-based draws, with an anticipated increase in the number of draws and ITAs for healthcare, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency.

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